🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Made $436K on Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants assessed the probability of a political change at just under 7% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the market's assessment had increased to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," commented an industry expert. Several of other platform users also profited significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill put forward on Monday would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Market Background Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."